Matchday 8 - Fooled By Randomness

Germany 0 - Serbia 1 (Jovanovic 38)
Slovenia 2 (Birsa 13, Ljubijankic 42) - USA 2 (Donovan 48, Bradley 82)
England 0 - Algeria 0

Matchday 8 saw the tipster's nightmare continue at the 2010 World Cup with another three favourites failing to get the full 3 points. Serbia handed Germany its first group stage defeat since 1986 with a 1-0 win, Slovenia managed to hold the USA to a 2-2 draw, and a brave Algeria halted the might of England to get a point in a 0-0 result.

The early game ended in the worst possible result for Australia after Serbia defeated a 10-man Germany 1-0. This left every team in Group D except Australia on 3 points and means that the Aussies must now win their final two group games to advance to the knockout stages. The Serbs shocked the world by handing the Germans their first group game defeat since 1986, but in truth they were undeserved winners. Miroslav Klose was extremely harshly sent off (especially given I had backed him for first goalscorer) for two first-half yellow cards that were extremely soft. Earlier he had a goal ruled out after being judged to be in an offside position (this was close too!). Just minutes after the red card the Serbs nabbed the only goal of the game through Milan Jovanavic. Outside the goal however the Germans dominated and if not for the ineptness of Lukas Podolski would have got at least level and could have gone on to win the game. Podolski blew a host of chances culminating in a missed penalty of Serbia committed another hand ball in the penalty box. Despite the loss the Germans should not be too worried, as they completely dominated open play. They will have no problems beating Ghana to advance as Group Winners. The Serbs now have destiny in their own hands and a defeat of Australia in their final group game will see them advance to the knockout stages.

Group C's second round of matches kicked off with a crazy 2-2 draw between Slovenia and the USA. Slovenia all but had a foot in the last 16 after they led 2-0 at the break but a sensational second half comeback from the Yanks saw them grab a point and keep their qualification hopes alive. In fact the USA arguably should have taken all three points with a what looked a clear third goal by substitute Maurice Edo in the last 10 minutes inextricably ruled out by the referee after a supposed previous foul in the box. It looked a horrible overrule at first glance and the USA will feel extremely aggrieved if they fail to qualify on the back of that decision. Still the two sides played a very entertaining game of football that included some quality finishing from both sides. Slovenia's first goal from Valter Birsa who blasted home from well outside the box with Tim Howard stranded. It was hardly a glamour night for the goalies either with the Slovenian keeper's efforts on Landon Donovan's first half goal looking extremely weak after Donovovan bore down on his near post. The result means the US will most likely need to win its final group game over Algeria to advance, while a point for Slovenia against the might of England would see them through. Having blown a 2-0 lead here however, they may have missed their chance.

The late game saw a staggeringly poor performance by England who failed to break down a stout Algerian defence, resulting in a 0-0 draw. The memories brought back efforts of the French team earlier in the tournament as a team of superstars completely failed to gel, and in the end Algeria arguably had the better chances on goal (or though neither side really deserved to win the game). A massive concern for England would be the form of star striker Wayne Rooney who was completely invisible for the second straight game. You almost hope that he has a slight niggle because if he is playing at this level fully fit it is a real worry. On it's first two performances you would have to say that England is absolutely buckley's of challenging at the later end of this tournament. They created absolutely nothing against a side that had lost five of its last 6 friendlies and they now will most likely need to win their final game against the Slovenians if they are even to get out of the group. Ominously a final 16 match up against the Germans awaits and on form they would be pounded. The Algerians were exceptionally brave and have now given themselves a chance of qualifying if they can defeat the USA in their final group game.

Updated Odds To Advance - Group C -England ($1.50), USA ($1.65), Slovenia ($1.75), Algeria ($5.50). Group D - Germany ($1.30), Ghana* ($1.70), Serbia ($1.75), Australia* ($10)

*Still to qualify

What We Learned - That no results can be taken for granted at this World Cup with another three fancied nations dropping points over night. The cold weather has allowed lesser teams to defend for the entire 90 minutes and the result as been a number of surprising results. Many Group's will go right down to the last minute of the final group games now and we might see some major omissions from the knockout rounds.

The Falcon's Spud Of The Day - Lukas Podolski (Germany) - The spud who put Australia's qualification hopes on the rack in our opening group game had an absolute shocker, missing chance after chance to get Germany back level after they were 1-0 down and had lost striker Miroslav Klose. Topped it all off by missing a penalty that would have put Germany right back in the game. He should be playing for Poland anyway.

Tonight's Games - The early game sees the return of Group E with the Netherlands taking on Japan. The Dutch should be way too good. At midnight Australia puts everything on the line. They must beat Ghana to keep their qualification hopes alive. Sadly I think the Ghanaians will wrap up their own qualification with a win. The late game sees Cameroon take on Denmark with both nations looking for their first point of the tournament. I think the Danes will just edge this one.

Suggested Investment - The only win we have had at this tournament so far has been on Australia to lose so we may as well stick with that strategy. I will be putting plenty on Ghana to win (with the draw = money back option) as the ultimate emotional hedge.