Matchday 14 - Champs Crash Out

Slovakia 3 (Vittek 25, 73, Kopunek 89) - Italy 2 (Di Natale 81, Quagliarella 90+2)
Paraguay 0 - New Zealand 0
Denmark 1 (Tonasson 81) - Japan 3 (Honda 17, Endo 30, Okazaki 87)
Cameroon 1 (Eto'o 65p) - Netherlands 2 (Van Persie 36, Huntelaar 83)

Matchday 14 saw a sensation in South Africa as defending champion Italy crashed out of the tournament following a 3-2 loss to Slovakia. A 0-0 draw between Paraguay and New Zealand means the South Americans will top the group. In a virtual knockout clash in Group F, Japan defeated Denmark 2-1 to book a place in the last 16 alongside the Netherlands who defeated Cameroon 2-1.

In arguably the biggest shock at the tournament so far Italy succumbed to European minnows Slovakia despite 2 late goals. The defending champions trailed 2-0 with just 20 minutes to play following a pair of goals from Robert Vittek, but were able to pull one back through Anotnio Di Natale with 10 minutes left. However, a Kamil Kopunek strike in the last minute of normal time crushed Italian dreams, and despite a goal in injury time the Azzuri could not find the goal they needed to draw the game and advance. As a result, the Italians will finish bottom of the group with just 2 points, 1 less than the plucky New Zealanders who were eliminated from the tournament after a 0-0 draw with Paraguay. The Kiwi's can look back at the tournament with success after not having lost a game. Paraguay cruised through the group in the end and along with their South American neighbours Uruguay, look to be one of the dark horses in this years tournament. For the Italians, perennial slow starters at tournaments, for once they left their run of form too late, and the result is a shattering group stage exit.

In Group F, underdog's Japan produced a superb display of football to defeat Denmark 3-1 and advance to the second phase for the first time on foreign soil. The Japanese dominated the game and showed they were one of the few nations to master the Jabulani ball as they took a first half 2-0 lead on the back of two goals from direct free kicks (admittedly they might have got a touch of help from Danish goalkeeper Thomas Sorenson). The Danes were clearly shocked by the goals and took a while to recover. They bounced back in the second half and controlled most of the player but were struggling to create chances, and when they did they were brutally finished by Jon Dahl Tomasson who was finding it close to impossible to break his 2 year international goal drought. In the end, both Denmark and Tomasson received redemption via the penalty spot, the Danes reducing the deficit to win after Tomasson scored on the rebound after his initial effort was saved by the Japanese goalkeeper. The Danes had 10 minutes left to score 2 more goals to advance, but in their haste to push up the pitch they left the back door open (isn't it always the case) allowing Shinji Okazaki to finish the match and send Japan through to the knockout rounds. They will join group winners the Netherlands who had little trouble in dispatching a lacklustre Cameroon 2-1.

Second round matches - Netherlands ($1.17) v Slovakia ($5.50), Paraguay ($1.62) v Japan ($2.62)

What We Learned - That Italy were in fact too old, too slow, and too unprepared. Back-to-back draws against Paraguay and New Zealand were put down to the Italian tradition of starting tournaments slowly, but their true issues were finally unmasked when they failed to overcome their final hurdle in Slovakia. The Italians follow France in 2002 as defending champions to be eliminated at the group stage.

The Falcon's Spud of the Day - Thomas Sorenson (Denmark) - Yet another goalie to get the award but it was an easy choice given he let in two goals directly from free kicks in the opening half. That almost matches the entire amount of goals from free kicks conceded by every other team at the entire tournament! He nearly joined Robert Green with the ultimate howler, when he fumbled another blooper of a free kick only to see the ball bounce of the join of cross bar and post.

Tonight's Games - The Group stage of the tournament concludes with Brazil and Portugal competing for top spot in Group G. I expect a slightly weakened Brazil side to be able to do enough to hold Portugal to a draw. In the other game Ivory Coast will need to slot about 10 past North Korea to have any chance of qualifying. I'm sure they'll win easily but that score will be beyond them. All four teams can still qualify in Group F with Spain looking to win the group with a win over Chile - they should do that easily. That leaves Switzerland having to beat Honduras to qualify and they should have just enough in the tank to defeat the Latin Americans by the odd goal.

Suggested Investment - Sticking to the theme of betting in matches were results actually mean something (although that didn't really help last night!) I think the way to go is to take a multi with Spain and Switzerland to both win their Group F matches tomorrow morning.

Prices courtesy of Betfair.